Rising up to the challenge of our rival
There’ve been a lot of stories during the last week about Google and how they seem to be giving Microsoft a difficult time. Stories speculating about what Google are up to. Stories about Microsoft changing the way they build software and reorganizing to better compete against companies like Google. Etc.
This is a hot topic these days. Finally the IT press have something interesting to write about, it seems. The competition between Microsoft and Google. Who will win?
I’d say based on what I’ve seen so far, Google is more likely to loose. But even if Microsoft eventually wins from Google, it won’t be very easy. You see, Google isn’t Netscape. The guys who’re calling the shots at Google aren’t the kind of guys who’re going to be preoccupied with dealing blows to Microsoft. They’re the kind of guys who’re going to keep focused on innovating and continuing to please their customers. They’re the kind of guys who won’t focus too much on what Microsoft is doing and how they should counter that. They will focus on what they want to do and what they feel is right for them and their customers. They are also getting into a variety of different markets, and continue to explore new opportunities. At least, so far so good. This is what makes it hard to attack them and bring them down. As far as I can see, the only thing that will stop them is when they somehow come to stand still or fail to come up with new innovative products and services or improvements to existing products and services that matter to customers. If that happens, you can easily imagine what will happen to the value of Google stock and the company as a result. And if Google Talk is an indication, I’d say there’s a big possibility Google will continue to disappoint us in the future.
Then you have Microsoft. Say about Microsoft what you want, but the fact is that from November 2005 to at least the end of 2006 and possibly well into 2007, Microsoft are going to carpet bomb their competitors with loads of interesting product releases and technologies. It’s going to be quite overwhelming. Linux on the desktop? Vista is going to deal with that in a very effective way. Playstation 2 and 3? XBox 360 won’t give them a chance. Google Desktop Search? Vista is going to seriously take care of that as well. Google has absolutely no chance on the desktop. I don’t know why they try, but they shouldn’t. They should focus on the Internet where their strength is. Ofcourse they can try to compete with search on the desktop even after Vista is released, but then WinFS will bring them in touch with reality about a year later in a very serious way. Open Office? Microsoft Office 12 is going to effectively put them back at the Stone Age. And quite frankly, MSN has a lot more exciting stuff planned compared to Google. And they?ve just started…
There are two very important Microsoft case studies from the past from which we can learn a few things. One is related to Netscape and the Internet, and the other is related to security and Linux. The last one is still ongoing, and if you’ve been reading my previous posts, you’ve probably already seen that we’ve reached the turning point, the point where Microsoft turns the problem around to their advantage. There was such a point too in the Netscape case. It came about the time IE4 was released. This time, the fact that Microsoft spent about 4 years improving the security in their products in a holistic way, while everyone else was basically asleep, puts them ahead of most of their competitors with regard to security. From the way they build software internally, to the actual features of their products to their entire security update infrastructure, there isn’t any company right now who comes even close. And some are beginning to realize this. But it’s already too late because Microsoft has a 4 year head start. This is the turning point for the second case. Microsoft is about to claim victory. That claim will come around Vista’s release.
Back when Google made the mistake to release Google Desktop Search for Windows, they probably didn’t realize well enough what kind of demons they awoke at Microsoft. All the kinds of alarms you can possibly imagine went off that day at Microsoft. In fact, I?m sure the next day Microsoft placed an order for new office furniture for some of its executives. In one of my previous posts, I compared it to walking to your neighbor?s house, kicking in his front door and making yourself at home while you expect him to just watch and do nothing about it.
It may actually take some time for Microsoft to first catch up, get their act together and then really take on the challenge when they’re prepared. But they are preparing, and we’re just beginning to see the results of that. And when we look at the other two cases I mentioned earlier, one thing we can notice is that the battle could take a few years. And like Netscape, Google may not totally go down or completely vanish, but they may still be around after the battle has been fought, like a ghost trying hold on to life, trying to find peace with the fact that it never really got the chance to accomplish everything it wanted in life.
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